Context:
Germany is renowned for its production of premium
acoustic pianos (upright and grands). The piano
manufacturing industry is supported by the nation’s
strong musical heritage and music education system.
The digital keyboard entered the market in the 1980’s.
This study looks at Germany’s piano market in the last
decade to investigate how the rise of the digital
keyboard has affected the production of acoustic
pianos.
Key Question:
How has the digital keyboard and international trade
affected the piano manufacturing industry?
Data:
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World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
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Import and Export Trade Values and Quantities of Upright Pianos, Grand Pianos, and Digital Keyboards
-
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Destatis GENESIS-Online
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Quarterly production numbers and values of acoustic pianos manufactured in Germany
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Tools:
Excel, Python
Skills:
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Data cleaning and wrangling
-
Exploratory analysis
-
Correlation testing
Process for addressing objective:
-
Cleaning and wrangling data
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Exploratory Analysis - finding trends
-
Testing a hypothesis - correlations
-
Summarize insights - create infographic
Overview
The piano market includes import/ export of instruments as well as domestic production.
Significant observations:
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The production number of acoustic pianos in 2024 is less than half of that in 2014.
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Digital keyboards account for 97.6% of imported instruments.
Current Piano Market
Domestic demand, calculated as net import + production, shows that digital keyboards dominate the market, peaking during the pandemic and falling dramatically after 2021.
At 1/6 the value of the comparable upright piano, the digital keyboard is the most affordable option for consumers.
Germany exports 1.4x more grand pianos than it imports, indicating strength in manufacturing and export market.
Domestic Market
In the same period as demand for digital keyboards was
rising (2014-2021), production of acoustic pianos was already in decline. Yet, the most substantial fall in production happens after 2022.
How did piano manufacturers stay competitive in the market?
Hypothesis: As production decreases, the value of pianos increases.
Correlation Coefficient
Grand pianos: -0.81 Upright pianos: -0.93
A correlation test shows a strong negative correlation
between production quantity and value, proving that
manufacturers increase prices as production decreases.
Quality over Quantity
Digital keyboards dominates the market as the most affordable option for consumers.
Quality of music education may suffer; cheaper
digital keyboards offer broader accessibility to basic
music education but limits capabilities for producing authentic touch and refined piano playing.
Piano manufacturers turn to quality over quantity: acoustic pianos become high-end premium products.
As piano manufacturers focus on the high-end
market, they will trade in production numbers for
luxury handcrafted instruments.
After 2022, there is sharp downward trend in both imports and production, indicating decreased demand.
With the decline of imports and production, there
may be an opportunity for sales of used pianos to fill in the market gap for affordable acoustic pianos.
Impacts and Consequences
Project Assessment
Goal:
• To explore the impact of digital keyboards on the structure of the piano market in Germany.
Challenges:
• Limited access to data, resolved through use of international trade and federal production numbers as proxy.
• Wrangling of variables to produce useful metrics for analysis, such as net import, export ratio and instrument value.
Results:
• Observed the growth and dominance of digital keyboards.
• Examined the impact of lower production numbers on increased value for acoustic pianos.
Reflection:
• In producing the results as an infographic, this project has taught me how to organize and present my findings in a concise and effective way.
Infographic created on Canva. Click to view PDF:
